宏觀視角下

Christy Tan (Host): Hi, this is Christy Tan, Investment Strategist with Franklin Templeton Institute. Thank you for tuning in to this episode of Under the Macroscope. Today, we'll be delving into the ins and outs of multi-asset investing, and joining us as our special guest is Subash Pillai, the APAC Regional Head of Client Investment Solutions here at Franklin Templeton.

Welcome Subash, and let's get right to it. Now, you specialise in multi-asset portfolio solutions. With the interest rate environment now, how does multi-assets come into play in investor’s portfolio?

Subash Pillai (Guest): Christy, thanks so much for having me on.

So, you know, firstly I think multi-assets’ definitely in the area where investors are focused on. The income suite within multi asset is sought after because of you know higher interest rates, higher inflation. It’s a way to supplement your income. It’s a way to earn sufficiently if you’re a levered investor to support your borrowings against your investment portfolio.

I think this is an environment that’s likely to continue as well over the next decade.

Host: Speaking about the decade, we are certainly living in an exciting era, or rather complex environment now. How do you see a multi-asset portfolio set up to navigate this environment?

Guest: Yeah, it's been a very exciting time for us. I think there are two key dynamics going on in the market right now. So firstly, I think you've got a very complex macroeconomic environment. And what a multi asset portfolio gives an investor the opportunity to do is to basically have a dynamic manager. They can affect changes in their asset allocation a lot faster investing in a multi asset style portfolio, and in an environment like we've had with so much volatility, you know, I think they see the benefit in that.

Second, the second kind of key dynamic, as I see it, and this is more around the multi asset income space is you do have a challenge. Yes, I know inflation is moderating, but it is still much higher than most people have experienced in in the last couple of decades and equally importantly, interest rates remain very high. So that is an important impact on investors. So, if you're just investing your spare capital, well, it's good if you're actually earning an income on that, that can help you meet those higher bills. We all know inflation here in Singapore got to well above 5%, that's going to be useful.

So, what a multi asset income capability or strategy does is it typically delivers a level of distribution that is much greater than what you would get, say, as the just the normal dividend yield on an equity portfolio and this can help investors have the cash to basically satisfy those borrowing costs. So, I think those are the two key dynamics driving investor behaviour right now.

Host: That’s really interesting, and it ties in with what you mentioned at the start of our conversation that, investors who are leveraged need to consider this kind of income they want to be delivered from a multi-asset portfolio.

Now, let us pivot our conversation to diversification and correlation between asset classes. We know the static 60/40 allocation didn’t turn out well last year. So, how would that be different in a multi-asset portfolio?

Guest: Yeah, so within a diversified multi asset portfolio, what you're accessing is not just that simplistic diversification dynamic of: oh, well I have more equities and less fixed income or more fixed income and less equities. That's kind of the first stage of diversification. Now that's a very important stage of diversification. But it can let you down, as was the case in 2022.

There are other important methods of diversification if you want to be more 3 dimensional in your diversification. So, within your defensive assets, in an environment like we had in 2022 where you are seeing inflation surging, well, long-dated bonds are not so defensive anymore. You would be well placed to actually be allocating to the front end of the yield curve, where you are not going to suffer the same degree of capital erosion as you will when interest rates rise. So that's a way that you can diversify even within fixed income.

Similarly, if I think about equities as a, you know, a large part of the growth component of anybody's portfolio, there are going to be different sectors that show different interest rate sensitivity. There are going to be different sectors that show more or less pricing power in an inflationary environment. And you, really, in that inflationary environment, for example, you want to be more exposed to those companies with less interest rate sensitivity and stronger pricing power. And that's a way that you can diversify even within your growth assets. So really you know what a multi asset strategy allows investors to do is to get that multifaceted diversification.

Host: 3-dimensional diversification; actively managing the allocation within the asset class itself. That’s a good one! Well, in this volatile condition, it would make sense for unconventional approach to multi-asset investing.

On that note, thank you Subash for the great insights and advice. And to all our listeners, this is Under the Macroscope. I am Christy Tan, Investment Strategist, Franklin Templeton Institute.

 Christy Tan (Host): Hi, this is Christy Tan, Investment Strategist with Franklin Templeton Institute. Thank you for tuning in to the seventh episode of Under the Macroscope. In this episode, we will be talking about Japan – loved by tourists but not so much by investors! This time round, we have our fourth guest on this podcast – Hsung, Vice-President of the Global Equity Group and Portfolio Manager for our Japan Strategy.

To start off Hsung, what are the three most pertinent points you want our listeners to pay attention to today?

Hsung Khoo (Guest): Sure, thanks for having me on this podcast, Christy.

The three points are:

Number 1 – It is time to take Japanese equities seriously, after 30 years of neglect by global investors. Number 2 – Inflation is returning to Japan.

Number 3 – Corporate reforms have reached a tipping point.

Now, let me start with my first point, and that is Japanese equities has been a neglected asset class for the past three decades. Japan’s weight has fallen to around 5% of, on the MSCI World Index from 40% back in 1987. Japanese equities trade at a significant discount to developed market peers. This comes down to two reasons. Firstly, earnings growth outlook has been poor as Japan was in deflation. Secondly, corporate Japan lacks a focus on shareholders’ interests. For example, Japanese companies have notoriously low return on equity, or ROE.

Japanese equities can provide portfolio diversification in an era of geopolitical rivalry between U.S. and China. It is a large and liquid stock market with improving corporate governance.

Host: Now, let’s address your second and most important point – inflation. How does this benefit corporate earnings in Japan?

Guest: Well, inflation helps earnings in two ways. Price increases raises the revenue growth potential for businesses. Profit margins also tend to expand with higher revenue growth. Most businesses have a reasonable degree of fixed costs. So, revenue growth generally outpaces cost in an inflationary environment.

Host: Well, there have always been false dawns in the past, so how is it different this time? In your opinion, is this inflation sustainable?

Guest: That’s a great question, Christy. What is different this time is that an inflation cycle is in motion. Companies have regained confidence in raising prices and households are accepting higher prices. Most importantly, wages are rising at the fastest pace in thirty years. Rising wages is the key to sustainable inflation. Companies are no longer able to suppress wages as labour market is very tight. Japan has an ageing and shrinking population. It has also run out of slack labour.

Here's a pop quiz! What do you think is the female labour participation rate in Japan?

Host: A wild guess from me, around… 70%?

Guest: You got it! It’s close to 75%¹. That is higher than in the U.S!

Host: Wow, in that case, everyone can see how this will translate into sustainable inflation trend going forward. Your third point on corporate reforms is very interesting as well. Please unpack for our listeners, why and how is this a game changer?

Guest: The lack of focus on shareholder interests in Japan has been a key reason for the valuation discount to developed market peers. Half of the listed companies trade at below book value. Most of these companies are in a net cash position. The scale of potential value to be unlocked is game changing for Japanese equities.

Host: That is quite a number of listed companies trading below book value. I can see why you think Japan is at a tipping point of its corporate reforms journey, but please elaborate!

Guest: So, the journey began ten years ago with the introduction of the corporate governance code.

Since then, dividends and share buybacks have been steadily improving. Today, Japan is 2nd only to the US in the number of activist shareholder campaigns.

Sony and Hitachi are examples of successful corporate reforms. These companies have generated strong returns for their shareholders. They are returning excess capital to shareholders, exiting unattractive businesses, and deploying capital towards more profitable businesses.

The institutional pressure to focus on shareholder interests stepped up further this spring. The Tokyo Stock Exchange requested listed companies that trade below book value to provide an action plan aimed at improving their market valuation and return on equity.

As half of the listed Japanese companies trade at below book value, the corporate reform movement has now gone mainstream. Investors should seize the opportunity to engage with companies on the best way forward to unlock shareholder value.

Host: I think it’s really an exciting time for Japanese equities with these corporate reforms in the works.

To conclude, in your opinion, how should investors be positioning themselves to seize these attractive opportunities in Japan? (The information provided is not a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any particular security.)

Guest: Yes. I think the most attractive opportunities are likely to be under-represented in the index. Active management is a better way to capture the unique investment opportunities in Japan.

Host: On that constructive note, thank you Hsung for the great insights and advice. And to all our listeners, this is Under the Macroscope. I am Christy Tan, Investment Strategist, Franklin Templeton Institute.

¹Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Citi research, June 2023 

Christy Tan (Host) : Hi, this is Christy Tan, Investment Strategist with Franklin Templeton Institute. Thank you for tuning in to the sixth episode of Under the Macroscope. In this episode, China will be once again, under the macroscope. This time around, we have a special guest with us from Shanghai, Xu Lirong, the Chief Investment Officer of Franklin Templeton Sealand Fund Management who will give us his local insights about this vast country.

Morning, Lirong, thank you for joining me today! Now, I've recently argued in my article, “China’s Consumption Triangle”, that its domestic consumption is the biggest upside opportunity in the next 6 to 12 months. Now I know that many people may disagree with me because the recent macro data has been disappointing, but I think a large part of it is because of patchy consumer confidence. But I'm confident as well that signs are pointing to more stimulus measures underway with government agencies working together to support some of the key sectors in order to boost domestic confidence and consumption. Compared to six months ago, I think that, now, the government has put in place more supportive measures. I also believe that the recent market movements have been due to a mismatch in investors’ expectations – they are getting impatient about China’s recovery post-COVID reopening.

So, let’s start with a couple of  pertinent points you want our listeners to pay attention to in China’s investment landscape. 

Xu Lirong (Guest) : Yeah, I think first, you're right that in the mid to long-term, consumption will be the key driver of the Chinese economic recovery. But before that, people have to wait more patiently for consumption to recover.

And the second thing is, I do think the Chinese government will deliver some kind of policy to support the economy, but the key word here is to “support”, not a stimulus. As a stock picker who observes things from a bottom-up approach, I do think this recovery – although it is slow – will be more consistent and more stable. This means that it's not just for one or two years, but possibly the next three to five years. These are all good things for China’s economy as a whole, as well as the capital markets. In short, in the mid to long-term, I'm still quite bullish about the China economy and also the stock markets, for both A-Shares and H-Shares.

Host : Thank you, and I think you brought up some very interesting points as a bottom-up stock picker. You do have that assurance that the Chinese economy, in the medium to long-term will be consistent and stable, so with these growth prospects I think consumers and investors have to display a little bit of patience. What are the sectors that you think will be constructive?

Guest : As we are bottom-up investors, we don't pick the sectors, we pick the companies. But generally speaking, I would see the manufacturing sector as kind of undervalued by the investors, in general. And the reason is, firstly, most industrial companies or manufacturing companies, most leading companies in different sectors, are listed in the China A-Shares market and not in H-Shares or in New York. So, this means that foreign investors are less familiar with them.

And the second thing is, I think China’s economy right now is entering into a new stage, which is the most favourable for those sector leaders, because the concentration ratio in almost every sectors are beginning to increase. So that means as a sector leader, you can still maintain your ROE (return on equity), or even increase your ROE (return on equity), while enlarging your market share.

Host : Right, and going forward, let's say we are looking at the recovery in China. You've traveled across Asia. In your recent experience within this region, how do you think investors are positioning for Chinese financial markets or Chinese A-Shares and how do you think they should position themselves with regards to Chinese A-Shares?

Guest : So, my point is, when I talk to clients in the Asia area, I get a few impressions (made a few observations). Firstly, right now all over the world in almost every country or area outside the US, they want to bet on both sides. This means that they don't only want to invest in China. Most of them are more reliant on, or invest heavily in the US, partly because of the traditional patterns, the strong U.S. dollar and the strong US stock market. But right now, I think there is increasing interest in investing in China, even though people are still watching. They are very interested, but many of them are still waiting because of what we discussed earlier – they are kind of frustrated that their expectations haven’t been met. I would suggest first, looking at the next decade or the next 15 years – China will still be one of the faster growth areas. In addition, Chinese markets including A-Shares and H-Shares will be the best place to chase alpha. The best part is, the Chinese stock market, especially the A-Share market, has quite a low correlation with the world's equity market. This means that even from an asset allocation perspective, global investors should have some kind of allocation to China.

When we talk about China, many people look at China as some kind of remote area, especially after what happened in the last three years. However, you need time to research and find out what really happened, such as on-the-ground research and the visiting and, you know, studying all the things. I think if you have done that, you will find that many of the investors outside China are kind of misguided because of the information they receive. So, I strongly encourage any investors who are interested in investing in China, to visit China’s different areas, such as the middle eastern area and the coastal area. You will then get (make) the conclusion by yourself.

Host : When we talk about opportunities, we cannot avoid talking about risks. What do you think are the biggest risks or headwinds for Chinese equities, and at the same time, how do you think you will advise investors to manage it?

Guest : I think from my perspective, if we think a little bit mid to longer term when investing in the Chinese market, I do think the key risk is still the geopolitical risk. But having said that, we have to face the reality that the next decade or next two decades is a different world compared to the last two decades. So that's just the reality.

So, I think to manage that kind of risk from an investors’ perspective, I would think or suggest an asset allocation, where you allocate some position to Greater China or to China. This is so that your position is counted in your overall risk evaluation of your whole investment (portfolio). So, from that perspective you may not need to worry too much about that.

And other risks, I think from the foreign investor perspective, I imagine many of them think about policy risks, for example what happened in last three years.  But for next decade or maybe next two decades, Chinese GDP will be relatively stable.

So that means, to make money or to find growth opportunities is not that easy as compared to the last decade. So that means you need to do more homework, not just study the industry policies and all that. And even if you can do that well, you can still miss the good opportunities. And so that's the reason I suggested my earlier point of on-the-ground research.

The last thing I want to mention is the volatility. The volatility of the Chinese market, A-Share market, and H-Share market, especially during last two years is relatively higher. The China A-Share market is a little bit momentum-driven and a retail-driven market, so that makes volatility a little bit higher as well. So, to manage that risk, I would suggest the investor to remain relatively mid to long-term. In that perspective, these volatilities may be friends of yours.

Host : So, spending time in the market rather than timing the market, as well as to ride out the volatility to get the returns and the rewards that are, you know, important, right? OK, perhaps just one last point. For investors who are not familiar with China, what should they equip themselves with when investing in China?

Guest : I would think firstly, it would be common sense.

And secondly, keep an open mind. I mean, we are living in a very diversified world, right? There are many different kinds of people and different kinds of culture. So, if some people or some areas or some countries, do things is a different way than yours, that doesn't mean they're wrong, right? So, try to be open-minded and not be biased.

For the last thing, I'm a stock-picker. So, when I pick the companies, I do think that one of the most important things is to meet the company on the ground: to visit the people, talk to them and get a full picture of the company. So, regarding China, if you invest in China as a relatively longer-term investor and are serious about it, you should visit the companies on-the-ground more frequently. Then, you can come to a conclusion by yourself.

Host : Thank you. So, I gather that the three points are, having some common sense when investing, to remove any biases, as well as being on-the-ground.

Guest : Yes.

Host : With that conclusion, thank you Lirong for the great insights and advice. And to all our listeners, this is Under the Macroscope. I am Christy Tan, Investment Strategist, Franklin Templeton Institute.

Christy Tan (Host): Hi, this is Christy Tan, Investment Strategist with Franklin Templeton Institute. Thank you for tuning in to the fifth episode of Under the Macroscope. In this episode, we’ll be discussing the U.S. Fixed Income markets.

Joining me today in Singapore is my second guest for Under the Macroscope podcast series, Sonal, who is Chief Investment Officer of Franklin Templeton Fixed Income.

Welcome, Sonal! Let’s start with the 3 most pertinent points you want our listeners to pay attention to in the U.S. fixed income complex.

Sonal Desai (Guest):  The first one is, the growth outlook is not as poor as markets seem to be pricing.

So, if I look at the US labour market, if I look at the US consumer, I look at US retail sales, all of this point to strength in the labour market, strength of the US economy.

I don't want to sound as if there is never going to be a recession, I just don't think it's going to be as sharp a recession as markets have recently been pricing.

The second point would be that, inflation is sticky. I think people need to just recognize it's sticky. And if you got the type of rate cuts, which the market is pricing, real interest rates would simply not be high enough to maintain lower inflation.

And the third point, I think which people need to recognize is, perhaps over the last decade-and-a-half, people have become very used to a very dovish US Fed. But, there's a big difference right now in that inflation is high. Since the Global Financial Crisis, anytime markets got a little nervous, the Fed would throw a lot of money at the problem.

This time around, I don't think it can. So, that would be the third point.

Host: Great points! During our recent conversations I’ve noted down some important points you made, and this encompasses your prediction that the Fed won’t lower interest rates this year, and the ECB (European Central Bank) and BoJ (Bank of Japan) will maintain their approach of tightening monetary policy.

These predictions are based on your belief that the U.S. and Euro area will experience a mild economic downturn. However, it appears that the current point of contention lies in the market’s differing opinion on this matter.

Guest: But the markets are counting on the idea, to some extent, that Fed rate cuts are going to be needed or the economy is going to have a very steep recession.

However, if the economy does not have that recession, the Fed rate cuts are not needed, and the Fed is going to remain focused on inflation. This is a big change in paradigm relative to the last 15 years.

Host: A big change indeed, and understandably, you are urging investors to place greater focus on security selection in portfolio construction, considering the mismatch between current corporate spread levels and the slowing economic conditions, as well as interest rate volatility.

In your view then, for fixed income investors, what does 2024 bring about, in terms of yield, duration and fixed income opportunities?

Guest: So, if I look ahead to 2024 by then, I do think the Fed hiking cycle is finished. We definitely are, in my mind, set for a very good period for fixed income. I think you have extended duration by then, by 2024, we will have extended our duration. But I think it's also a mistake to think that when duration is extended, this is an anticipation of 300, 400 basis points of rate cuts.

I think fixed income once again takes its place in a portfolio to deliver nice returns, but not equity-nice returns. So it's going to be lower volatility, lower total return than we've become used to (because we've become used to, again in the last 10, 15 years, getting equity-like returns from fixed income). And I think that is not going to happen.

And look at yields you know; I think we might go through an extended period of time where you get decent yields from fixed income. You get decent income from fixed income, which again, we haven't had for a long time.

So, outlook is good, I would say, for especially for my asset class.

Host: With that constructive conclusion, thank you Sonal for the great insights as always. And to all listeners, this is Under the Macroscope. I’m Christy Tan, Franklin Templeton Institute.

Note: This interview was recorded on 23 May 2023, before the US Fed FOMC meeting in mid-June 2023. Barring the reference to the market’s expectation of rate cut, the rest of the opinion expressed by Dr. Sonal Desai in this recording remains valid as of the publication date, 14 July 2023.

Christy Tan (Host): Hi, this is Christy Tan, Investment Strategist with the Franklin Templeton Institute.

Thank you for tuning in to the 4th episode of Under the Macroscope where we will be discussing the global sukuk market and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Joining me today in Singapore is my first guest for Under the Macroscope series, Dino, who is Chief Investment Officer of Global Sukuk, and the MENA fixed income based in Dubai, welcome Dino!

I would like to take a different tact today by starting with, what are the three most pertinent points you want our listeners to pay attention to in the global sukuk space.

Mohieddine Kronfol (Guest): Hi, good morning, it’s a privilege to be your first guest.

Given that the global sukuk market is also very much exposed to the GCC, I think that’s the 3 recommendations – trust the numbers, check the growth of the GCC and have some confidence in its future.

Host: Short and to the point, I will get back to you on those three points in a couple of minutes.

But first, you've made this bold statement that the global sukuk market will rise to USD 2.3 trillion by 2030¹. Could you elaborate on that, please?

Guest: Yeah, we have an optimistic outlook for the global sukuk market because there are a few really important drivers that are really supporting that growth.

On one hand, you have the growth of the GCC or Gulf Cooperation Council which are issuing a significant amount of bonds and today represent over 20% of the emerging market bond index and many investors continue to be underweight and as that grows, there’s going to be a certain percentage of these issues that are in sukuk format – historically they’ve been about 25%.

Also, the sukuk market has become increasingly mainstream and most investors today are fairly comfortable investing in a sukuk instrument vs a conventional bond.

But honestly, the reason we are most optimistic is because the global sukuk market over the past 10 years has delivered some of the best risk adjusted returns. We’re talking about the highest Sharpe ratio, and we’re talking about the lowest volatility of any major asset class over the past 10 years. And so, we think investors are going to continue to allocate money to those risk factors that deliver the best risk adjusted returns, and so our growth projections to grow from 800b today to about 2.3-2.5 trillion by 2030 implies a 15% annual growth rate.

Host: Thank you. And in this current environment where volatility is elevated and we have a lot of uncertainties surrounding the global growth issues and the US banking sector stress as well as the uncertainties involving China's reopening, I think it's very interesting to see that the sukuk market is still on the growth path.

So how do you see the sukuk markets can actually help to provide optimal risk return profile for investors?

Guest: So yeah, I mean I agree with you. Risk is top of mind today, there are a lot of uncertainties that we have to navigate and we’re probably going to have some elevated volatility. But the thing about the sukuk market that I think is so attractive are its defensive characteristics which we expect to persist. We touched on the lower volatility and that is to a certain extent, a function of the relatively liquid and dedicated investor base. The Islamic financial institutions that continue to support the market. And also, we’re talking about a relatively high-quality market and a relatively lower duration. So, in that context, when you think about lower volatility, you think about important diversification benefits, and you look at a history of smaller drawdowns. These defensive characteristics are going to deliver the type of diversification and portfolio protection that investors should be seeking in this relatively uncertain environment.

Host: So, diving into the different sectors within the sukuk market, do you foresee that the high yield sukuks or the investment grade sukuks that are getting more attractive?

Guest: That’s a great question. When we think about the markets, it is 80% investment grade. It’s high quality and till today, the largest issuers tend to be banks and sovereigns/governments. The bulk of which are investment grade and that is a source of comfort in a way. The way we look at the market right now we think that governments, banks, because there could be instruments of policy and many of the policymakers today want to see their Islamic or shariah compliant business grow, we think they’ll continue to be very important issuers. But, as governments today are making very bold commitments to net zero initiatives and the transition to low carbon, we’re beginning to see energy and utilities companies and some industrials participate in the market. And so, the outlook for the investment grade space is pretty positive. The high yield space is also very attractive, growing quickly, but I think the valuations today and the fact that we are defensive in general when it comes to credit, makes us very selective in that space, and I think we’ll continue to be selective over the coming few quarters.

Host: So, it's interesting that some of the new entrants are probably the contributing factors to the growth in the overall markets and it brings to mind that an even greater active management approach will be the way to go, would you agree?

Guest: Yeah, I mean it’s always been the case. Because historically we’ve had to deal with fairly significant concentrations in the market that we had to try and work around to try and diversify our portfolios as much as possible. Having a global remit, having risk management tools, having a very research-intensive process have all been important contributors. And I think as we go forward, we need to be very selective particularly with respect to high yield because if we look at the broad index, it does look pretty expensive, but within the market there are always opportunities and we continue to hold some high yield exposure but we are making very sure that were getting compensated for the risk, the valuations or the pricing is attractive, but also that they can manage to do relatively well in what we feel are very tight financial conditions and potentially a harder landing in the US as we go forward.

Host: So tying back to what you said in the initial part of our conversation, the three things that you would like our listeners to pay attention to, could you elaborate on that?

Guest: So the first thing I would say is that I would say look at the numbers; trust the numbers. If people were to control their biases and just look at the evidence that adding an allocation to global sukuk really helps reduce the risk of a multi-asset or a global fixed income portfolio, they would make those allocations. That would be the first thing.

The second thing would be to really look at or study what is happening in the GCC right now. This is a part of the world that is really being underpinned by some quite exciting structural reform story. It’s also a defensive allocation and it has managed the pandemic and the reopening a lot better than many parts of the world, at a fraction of the cost. It’s also a very significant and higher quality part of emerging markets that most investors tend to be under allocated to. That would be another recommendation.

The third, possibly tied to both, would really be to have a more balanced outlook on this whole transition to low carbon. I’ve heard recently that people are worried about the future of the GCC because as the world wanes its way away from oil, its future is less bright than other parts of the world, but in our assessment, that’s not true. The GCC is going to be very instrumental in the world’s transition to low carbon, they do have the most efficient production. They are investing in their energy mix, and they are going to be very much part of the story. I think it’s actually a very exciting place to invest in today – given that the global sukuk market is also very much exposed to the GCC, I think that’s an important component.

Host: Thank you, Dino, for your wonderful insights on the global sukuk market and the GCC, it was a pleasure to have you as our first guest today.

Guest: Thank you very much, it’s a pleasure to be here.

Host: And thank you all for tuning into this episode of Under the Macroscope.

This is Christy Tan, Franklin Templeton Institute.

¹Source: Franklin Templeton Fixed Income research as of May 2023

大家好，我是富蘭克林鄧普頓研究所投資策略師陳夏儀。感謝收聽《宏觀視角下》(Under The Macroscope)第3期。今天，我將就最近在北京召開的研究會議，與大家分享我對中國經濟的看法。

3年隔離期：首個遭受Covid-19疫情襲擊的國家，亦是最後一個擺脫疫情的國家

三年多來，外國投資者首次可從中國國內了解中國的真實情況；我很幸運能成為其中一員。以下是形成消費三角的三個觀察結果：

1. 中國國內消費乃最大的上行風險
2. 中國新一屆政府可能會將重點放在消費拉動型經濟增長模式上
3. 注意政府開支和消費者開支更為協調一致

第一個觀察結果：市場氛圍樂觀，略帶謹慎

市場堅信，中國今年國內生產總值增長將超過5%，採購經理指數將保持在50以上。然而，略帶謹慎則源自觀察到，疫情後，雖然國內消費牢牢佔據著駕駛席，但腳並沒有踩在油門上。為推動國內消費高速增長，決策者應解決以下幾個減速帶問題，即：

• 20年來的高儲蓄傾向，
• 鼓勵提高家庭收入的政策，以及
• 支持中等收入群體穩步擴大

中國的總儲蓄率乃世界上最高的國家之一(45.5%¹)，2022年家庭儲蓄激增超過2.5萬億美元。在「動態清零」政策迫使數百萬人待在室內，有時一次待上幾個月的空前時期，這些儲蓄為預防性儲蓄。預防性儲蓄累積自推遲買房和退出金融市場。我相信，在儲戶對未來的收入及就業前景更有把握時，這種形式的儲蓄就會減少。

未來6至12個月，中國國內消費將是整體增長表現面臨的最大上行風險。自2010年以來的近十年間（2010年至2019年），

• 私人消費佔國內生產總值的比例從34%升至39%，儘管同期家庭可支配收入佔國內生產總值的比例幾乎沒有變化
• 家庭儲蓄佔可支配收入的比例亦從2010年的42%降至2019年的不到35%。

部分原因在於社會保障（政府在醫療、退休和失業津貼等項目上的支出）得到改善，鼓勵公民消費，而非為未來或醫療緊急情況儲蓄。中國人民銀行最近的城市儲戶調查顯示，部分復甦跡象開始顯現。雖然很多中國居民傾向於增加儲蓄，但這一比例有所下降，而更願意投資的人有所增加。

第二個觀察結果：中國新一屆政府可能會將重點放在消費拉動型經濟增長模式上

有跡象顯示，新一屆政府可能會重新關注消費拉動型經濟增長模式，這將需要增加家庭可支配收入，並進一步加強社會保障體系。

中國剛剛宣佈，今年將減輕企業的稅費負擔（2,616億美元），並延長現有稅費優惠政策，預計將降低企業成本約1,730億美元。據此，中國政府將佔國內生產總值1%的減稅政策延長至2024年，其中消費部分佔減稅幅度的近一半（約佔國內生產總值的0.4%），進一步擴大的政策空間較大。

此外，去年（2022年）推出的新私人養老金計劃是一項重大舉措，將為在中國境內開展業務的資產管理公司提供具吸引力的長期增長機會。另外，我們預計香港股市將受惠滬港通資產潛在的南向流動。增長機會顯而易見，市場預計到2035年將增至1.8萬億美元。隨著市場的發展，中國的私人養老金產品將愈來愈多透過滬深港通投資於香港股市。

對於長線投資者而言，發展自動化的企業將存在具吸引力的投資良機。自動化是解決工資成本上升和人口老齡化問題的出路。

第三個觀察結果：政府支出與消費者支出協調一致

最後，我的第三個觀察結果是未來政府支出和消費者支出的協調一致性。在美國和歐洲的銀行業承壓以及已發展經濟體央行收緊貨幣政策之際，中國作為相對「避風港」脫穎而出

• 具有增長溢價，
• 國內銀行業和房地產行業的系統性風險最低，以及
• 以總理李強為首的新領導班子應較為親商。

因此，注意未來幾個月的政策舉措將有利於商業、私營企業及外國直接投資。

感謝收聽本期《宏觀視角下》節目。我是富蘭克林鄧普頓研究所策略師陳夏儀。

1. 截至2021年底，CEIC數據

大家好，我是富蘭克林鄧普頓研究所投資策略師陳夏儀。

感謝收聽《宏觀視角下》(Under The Macroscope)第2期。在本期節目中，我們將探討聯儲局行動與市場表現的不協調之處，以及喧囂中的機會所在。

聯儲局與市場間的拉鋸戰

聯邦公開市場委員會會議後，聯邦基金期貨顯示，到2023年底最少減息4次。

• 如果聯儲局與市場陷入拉鋸戰僵局，市場可能會更搖擺不定，導致資產重新定價範圍較低。
• 然而，如果市場順其自然，風險承受能力可能會恢復。

鴿派陣營的投資者往往會提到，眾所周知，聯儲局會在最後一次加息後的六個月內減息。但值得一提的是，加減息之間的間隔可能長達18個月。

首先，聯儲局不會在「金髮姑娘」的環境下減息

借鑒聯儲局主席鮑威爾在2018年所言，聯儲局加息的方式就像在一個堆滿家具的黑房間裡行走。每一次加息似乎都讓房間變得更加昏暗，銀行業最近顯然遇到了一些麻煩。

然而，隨著形勢愈演愈烈，在環球當局迅速提供有效的支持後，投資者情緒從恐慌轉變為放心，可能再聚焦於美國經濟及通脹情況。「金發姑娘」經濟（通脹及經濟增長上下行風險均達到平衡狀態）可能不會促使聯儲局開始放寬政策。

儘管如此，有些人可能會辯稱，最近美國銀行業的壓力可能是反通脹的

美國的通脹明顯已達到峰值（2022年6月整體消費物價指數為9.1%），預計將從目前的6.0%進一步下降。美國近期銀行業壓力的影響將在未來幾週顯現出來，表現為信貸減少及融資成本上升。在華爾街之外，我們可能會看到商業活動及消費者支出減少、失業率上升以及企業盈利下降。銀行業面臨的壓力，如COVID-19疫情，可能會促進美國的反通脹趨勢。

因此，對通脹降至聯儲局2%目標的預期可能會升溫。此外，對輕度衰退的呼聲已有所減弱。經濟軟著陸或輕度衰退最初的前提是家庭和企業資產負債表強勁以及央行支持力度不大。這三個理由中的兩個（後兩個）可能不再成立，相反，經濟衰退的列車可能正在加速。

固定收益的機會之窗已然開啟

總而言之，2023年三管齊下的投資方法是多元化、質素及主動管理。富蘭克林鄧普頓研究所的固定收益導航器(Fixed Income Navigator)¹ 建議對固定收益投資保持高度信心，尤其是對國庫債券、投資級別債券及市政債券。

前端孳息曲線的倒掛乃表明固定收益投資機會之窗已然開啟的首批信號之一。最近2年期美國國庫債券孳息率的大跌進一步加劇這種倒掛趨勢，市場顯然預計聯儲局將很快放鬆政策。公平地說，當前的環境使決策變得複雜。

儘管如此，即使不會立即減息，市場繼續消化此類事件亦會導致孳息曲線出現牛市趨陡，在此情況下，短期孳息率的下降速度快於長期孳息率。縱觀歷史，這種環境對優質債券極為有利。

最後，亞洲投資者亦可能考慮分散投資亞洲固定收益，該地區更能抵禦美國銀行業壓力帶來的增長風險，同時中國重新開放帶來的額外增長支持正在增強。

在下一期《宏觀視角下》，我將為你們介紹更多中國的色彩和實地脈搏。

感謝收聽本期《宏觀視角下》節目。我是富蘭克林鄧普頓研究所策略師陳夏儀。

大家好, 我是富蘭克林鄧普頓研究所的投資策略師陳夏儀。

感謝收聽本期的「宏觀視角下」，讓我們為您解讀資本市場動態。

FOMC的影響力: 今天的鷹派可能成為明天的鴿派

三月美國聯邦儲備局公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議上，聯儲局一致同意加息0.25厘。儘管這是一個普遍預期的舉措，但市場反應由預期轉為懷疑，認為今天的鷹派可能成為明天的鴿派。聯儲局加息0.25厘後，兩年期美國國債上升逾4%，但最終收報下跌。

退一步思考三個關鍵問題是非常重要

在耶倫表示監管機構不打算提供「全面」存款保險後，美國股市最初的強勢也隨之消失。在這樣的時刻，當事態迅速發展，投資者難以跟上動盪的市場時，退一步思考三個關鍵問題是非常重要:

1. 一場系統性金融危機正在上演嗎?

2. 各國央行會停止加息嗎?

3.政策制定者可以採取什麼行動來穩定銀行、金融市場和經濟?

以下是我們目前的想法:

央行收緊政策可能是一個積極信號

歐洲央行(ECB)上周將利率上調0.5厘，向市場傳遞了一個訊息，即決策者認為形勢並不如市場普遍預期差。同樣，聯儲局本周將利率調高了0.25厘，並認為美國銀行體系是穩健和有彈性的。歐洲央行和聯儲局正試圖通過言行來增強市場信心，即金融體系和經濟已經足夠穩定，他們可以繼續專注於降通脹為首要任務。

不過，利率上升對銀行資產負債表的資產方面構成了挑戰

這一點在矽谷銀行(SVB)充分表現，未對沖債券的損失令該行承受巨大虧損，最終導致該行倒閉。其他銀行或許能更有效管理利率風險，但考慮到其持股、對沖策略和報告的不透明性，缺乏透明度令人不安。

必須為存款戶重建信心

銀行業危機有負面影響，因為一旦存戶質疑銀行的實力，很快就會出現快速提款，使實力較弱和實力較強的銀行均面臨風險。從長期來看，銀行監管機構必須加大力度對銀行進行適當監管，包括通過新的壓力測試，在必要時合併或合併瀕臨倒閉的銀行。

各國央行必須對就週期性風險以及銀行應如何看待其貸款組合品質發表明確聲明。這些審查必須在信貸質素出現週期性惡化之前進行。

亞洲的應對行動

在亞洲，投資者都擔心危機蔓延的風險和聯儲局的政策路徑。亞洲監管機構需守住金融穩定的底線。新加坡金融管理局(Monetary Authority of Singapore)隔夜發佈的聲明規定，對於新加坡銀行而言，即使在特殊情況下，股權持有人也將先於AT1和T2資本工具持有人承擔損失。我們預計，亞洲各國央行將更傾向於將貨幣政策轉向中性立場，為亞洲固定收益市場創造一個更具建設性的環境。

隨著事態發展，我們將在未來幾周推出更多的《宏觀視角下》播客。另外，本周我亦刊登了一篇關於亞洲銀行業壓力影響的文章。請繼續關注。