美國小型股的投資前景

What was your overall take on the market’s performance in 2Q23?

Chuck Royce: We were pleased on an absolute basis with small-cap’s results—the Russell 2000 Index was up 5.2% for the quarter. However, small cap underperformed the large-cap Russell 1000 Index, which was up 8.6% in 2Q23, while mega-caps did even better than large caps, with the Russell Top 50 Index advancing 13.2%. This pattern also held for the first half of 2023. In fact, the Russell 2000 trailed the Russell 1000 for the third consecutive quarter.

Francis Gannon: We were happy that funds including our own have performed very well, with strong absolute and relative returns for the second quarter, year-to-date, and most longer-term periods through the end of June. And this was true for almost all of our major strategies: high quality, opportunistic value, quality value, and our more classic value approaches all performed well—which does not always happen over shorter-term periods.

Do you agree that valuations throughout the market are unsustainably high?

Chuck Royce: Certainly no one is arguing that they’re low—but I also think the context is important. For all the understandable talk about how well the Nasdaq has done year-to-date—it was up 32.3% through June 30th—it also remained 13.9% off its previous peak on 11/19/21 at the end of June. And small caps are still in a bear market, down -20.8% from their last peak on 11/8/21 through June 30th. Most of the talk around elevated valuations has taken place in an inflationary climate with rising interest rates and widespread anxiety that the economy is about to slip into a recession. Market cap also needs to be taken into account. Valuations for large caps, on average, look a lot more stretched than they do for most small caps.

Francis Gannon: A lot of multiple compression has occurred over the last several months among small caps, particularly small-cap value stocks. At the end of June, valuations looked highly favorable for the Russell 2000 on both an absolute basis and relative to the Russell 1000, where they remain close to a 20-year low based on enterprise value over earnings before interest & taxes (“EV/EBIT”). Unsurprisingly in light of how it’s recently lagged growth, the Russell 2000 Value Index finished June much more attractively valued than the Russell 2000 Growth Index, based on that same EV/EBIT metric.

Why do you think that active management, as measured by the Morningstar Small Blend category, did well in both 2Q23 and the first half of the year, particularly in a period of strength for small-cap growth stocks?

Chuck Royce: First, lower return periods have historically been good for active management—and the last five years have been on average a low return period for small caps. The annualized five-year return for the Russell 2000 at the end of June was just 4.2%. Second, I think ongoing uncertainty has made small-cap investors focus more on fundamentals such as earnings and balance sheet strength. Small-cap companies with proven pricing power have also earned an edge in the inflationary environment. All of this appears to have resulted in a stock picker’s market for the asset class that’s helped disciplined, long-term active managers distinguish themselves.

Were there any other themes you saw in how returns stacked up in 2Q23 and the year’s first half?

Chuck Royce: I think many investors began to look beyond the current concerns about inflation and recession toward a more stable and positive economic environment. A lot of different factors likely played a role in that mindset: returns in April and May were low for large cap and negative for small cap, which I’m sure encouraged some investors to return to equities. Employment stayed strong, and recession talk appeared to subside in terms of both coverage and volume—which was also encouraging. I suspect that the Fed skipping an interest rate hike in June—even as they all but promised increases in July and September—was an even bigger factor. However, I think the biggest catalyst by far has been the promise of artificial intelligence (“AI”), a major secular trend whose impacts have just started to register.

In what ways did you see AI’s impact on stocks prices?

Francis Gannon: There was a notable demonstration of both AI’s importance and promise in the first half returns for the small handful of mega-cap companies that currently look like the biggest beneficiaries of AI adoption—Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and chip designer, Nvidia. Those companies drove large-cap results. Perhaps the most vivid illustration was Nvidia’s soaring stock price. Thanks to its expertise in making the chips that are needed to power AI applications, the Taiwanese tech giant reached $1 trillion in market cap in late May, putting it in the very exclusive company of Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft—the only other stocks with trillion-dollar market caps. So while we’ve only just begun to see AI’s impact, it’s already having quite an effect on the market.

Why do you think large cap outperformed small cap in 2Q23 and year-to-date through the end of June?

Chuck Royce: There were two factors at work, one that helped large cap, and another that hurt small cap. The first would be AI helping large cap. Information Technology—which is heavily weighted in the mega-cap stocks that were AI winners and had a more than 25% weighting in the Russell 1000 at the end of June—made by far the biggest contribution to returns for both 2Q23 and the year-to-date period within the large-cap index. The second factor had to do with the lingering impact of the banking crisis, which had some of its most adverse effects on the share prices of smaller regional players. And while banks are not nearly as heavily weighted in the Russell 2000 as tech stocks are in the Russell 1000, they were the largest industry weight in the Russell 2000 at the end of June.

Do you expect AI to eventually have a measurable effect on small caps as well?

Francis Gannon: It seems likely. Just as the advent of the Internet has had profound effects on the speed and availability of information, we think AI will have an analogous effect on the processing of information. It’s hard to overstate how important that will be. The number of beneficiaries will almost definitely extend beyond the limited number of players that are already reaping rewards. At the same time, it’s doubtful that we’ll see the equivalent of what we saw in the Internet Bubble, where hundreds of dot.com companies proliferated in short order. However, most major technological innovations—everything from websites and cell phones to the cloud—require components and services that small-cap companies provide—and we anticipate the growth of AI will be no different.

Can you recall a comparable period when such a small number of companies had such an oversized effect on market performance?

Chuck Royce: The Nifty Fifty market of the ‘70s and the 2000-2001 Internet Bubble are the only roughly comparable periods—though I think the current period is the most concentrated of any that I’ve invested through. For example, the bulk of large cap returns so far this year have come from seven stocks: the six tech companies we mentioned earlier along with Tesla. Considering that there are more than 4,000 publicly traded companies in the US, this is an almost absurd level of concentration. It certainly looks unsustainable to me. Going back 25 years, we haven’t really seen anything like the level we’re seeing currently.

What signs at the macroeconomic level might signal a turnaround for small-cap performance?

Francis Gannon: Certainly we’re hoping for a robust rebound for the US economy for many reasons, not the least of which is that small caps tend to do especially well in a thriving economy. We’ve seen signs that we are getting closer. To be sure, a soft landing looks more and more likely, while the kind of deep and potentially lengthy recession many have been anticipating since late 2021 looks less and less likely. As Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro recently put it, “The statute of limitations has now kicked in” regarding a recession in the US Here’s a great example: In May, the US Commerce Department reported a 0.9% seasonally adjusted increase in construction spending. Yet what was most interesting to us was how much of that spending went on new manufacturing facilities. There was a 76.3% increase from a year earlier, as well as a 1% advance in May over April. In addition, the Commerce Department showed that spending on manufacturing construction accounted for almost 0.5% of 1Q23’s gross domestic product (GDP), which was its largest share since 1991. Its second-quarter share of GDP will probably be even higher.

Chuck Royce: We’ve seen other promising developments as well: durable goods orders rose for the fourth consecutive month in June, hitting a record high for nondefense capital goods (excluding aircraft or core capital goods, a proxy for business equipment investment). Homebuilding rose by 21.7% in May, a record monthly surge that also defied expectations of a slowdown. Let’s also keep in mind that over the next year or so rate hikes and inflation will likely be sunsetting. Additionally, we’ll be starting to measure the positive impacts of reshoring, the infrastructure bill, and the CHIPs Act over a similar timeframe.

Are there other signs you can point to that suggest an improving climate for small caps?

Francis Gannon: As always, we put a lot of trust into what we’re hearing from company management teams. In our conversations, there continues to be a sense of cautious optimism—which was reflected in generally solid earnings for many holdings for the second quarter. All of this is consistent with our contention that small caps are due—perhaps overdue—for a breakout.

Then you’re not concerned about comparatively lackluster results for the Russell 2000 so far in 2023?

Francis Gannon: It’s true that January and June were the only months so far in 2023 when the Russel 2000 had positive returns. There were four straight down months in between. This is a rare occurrence that’s happened only nine times since the inception of the index on 12/31/78. We wanted to see what shape performance took over the subsequent one-, three-, and five-year spans. What we found was very encouraging, with each period coming in comfortably above the one-, three-, and five-year monthly rolling averages for the Russell 2000 since inception. For the eight periods for which we have data, subsequent one-year returns averaged 24.7%; subsequent three-year returns averaged 21.0%; and subsequent five-year returns averaged 16.8%.

What else informs you optimism for small-cap stocks?

Francis Gannon:: We’ve also compiled the data which shows how strong and lasting a rebound that small caps have historically enjoyed after low annualized five-year periods such as we had at the end of June. The Russell 2000 had positive annualized five-year returns 100% of the time—in all 81 five-year periods—averaging an impressive 14.9%, which was well above its monthly rolling five-year return since inception of 10.4%.