增長前景漸趨穩定

Preview

The themes we discuss at our Annual Investment Symposium guide our research process. Over a longer-term horizon, we believe global stocks have greater performance potential than global bonds, despite slightly slower growth expectations. With interest rates starting from elevated levels, overall return expectations from all fixed income assets have become more attractive than has been the case in recent years.

We need to recognize that our longer-term outlook will not be reached along a smooth path but take encouragement from the improved momentum in stock prices. Growth stabilization and declining inflation may be enough to justify the elevated valuations of equities.

In this Allocation Views, we continue to look at the major themes which are driving our views as well as considering where investors can find opportunities.

Key takeaways

Growth is stabilizing: Recession risks are moderating for some developed economies, and the outlook is stabilizing. Lagged effects of monetary policy and tight lending standards remain a risk to economic activity. We expect the disparity between manufacturing and services growth to narrow.

Inflation risks are now more balanced: Inflation is still well above target levels, but goods deflation remains in place, and core inflation is moderating across developed markets. Sticky services inflation is expected to be balanced by demand destruction as the lagged effects of slower economic growth are felt.

Policy to remain restrictive: Central banks are likely at peak rates, and are more data dependent, but will likely continue to sustain restrictive conditions. They maintain a primary focus on inflation, and most are accepting the consequences to growth. Policymakers remain prepared to address evolving crises and maintain financial stability.

Nimble management still required: The level of premium discounted in risk assets does not appear overly generous, but the declining level of uncertainty that we foresee makes this less of an impediment to owning such assets. We maintain our nimble investment management style and have increased our conviction toward equities.

Bond yields have declined recently: Our longer-term analysis shows that the return potential from global bonds, especially lower-risk government bonds, has improved. This supports our preference for longer duration assets, which has been maintained in recent months despite the sharp decline in yields more recently.

Opportunities in alternative assets: Maintaining a diversified portfolio of risk premia, in addition to the traditional benefits of a balanced portfolio between stocks and bonds, is the most likely path toward stable potential returns, in our view. We are attracted to naturally diversifying “alternatives” such as private assets, which offer the potential to earn an incremental return linked to their relative illiquidity.