配置觀點：盈利增長為股市注入動力 (只提供英文版)

Summary

We remain optimistic toward equities into August, as we look through renewed geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns to focus on strong corporate earnings.

In addition, recent equity market volatility has reset valuations for technology names and moderated sentiment and positioning indicators that were trending toward exuberance.

The overarching macro picture remains broadly neutral, despite the dampening effect further interest-rate rises could have. This isn’t enough to fuel our optimistic view of equities alone, but, crucially, it does nothing to counter the persuasive “risk-on” argument offered by very strong corporate fundamentals.

We retain an artificial intelligence (AI) tilt within our portfolios with overweight exposure to US, Japan and emerging market (EM) equities. We are generally less optimistic toward markets with lower exposure to AI and technology, particularly those with sensitivity to energy and commodity prices.

We continue to see international duration as relatively attractive. Weaker macroeconomic outlooks outside the United States raise the likelihood that market expectations for interest-rate rises are too optimistic in those regions.

Macro Themes

Strong Growth

• Macro growth remains strong, supported by strong corporate earnings power.
• The US economy has proven especially resilient, while labor-market data has stabilized.
• Leading economic indicators look healthy, but we are monitoring the impact of higher input costs.

Complex inflation

• Elevated core inflation continues to challenge US inflation dynamics, although recent data has been more positive.
• We expect limited second-order effects from the energy impulse, as supply-driven inflation will reduce real incomes and suppress consumer spending.
• Core goods inflation is also currently above trend. Tariff pressures may have waned, but we are monitoring global supply-chain tightness.

Tighter Monetary Policy

• Heightened tensions in the Middle East have catalyzed a recalibration of policy expectations, with a tightening bias in all major regions, including the United States.
• Fed Chair Warsh’s new approach is creating additional uncertainty. We ultimately believe the Fed will need to tighten monetary policy.
• Fiscal policy is supporting growth but contributing to expanding deficits. Defense spending and energy support packages could also prove influential.

Portfolio Positioning Themes

Cross Asset: Risk-On

• Corporate fundamentals remain strong amid double-digit earnings growth expectations for the next 12 months.
• Macro growth remains constructive but is offset by a tougher inflation and policy backdrop.
• Sentiment and positioning have become less stretched, supporting equities, but remain volatile in narrow segments such as AI.

Equity Diversification

• Our equity exposure is tilted toward AI, reflected as overweight exposure to the US, EMs and Japan. Positioning has eased and creates a more constructive setup moving forward.
• Euro-area growth indicators have improved, but energy sensitivity limits our optimism for European equities.
• Australian equities remain our least-preferred region due to a mixture of weak domestic growth, unsupportive fiscal policies and tight monetary policy.

Neutral Duration

• We expect demand destruction to have a greater impact on monetary policy decisions than market pricing suggests, decreasing the chance that international central banks meet market hiking expectations.
• Resilient US growth and elevated inflation complicate Fed policy. We improve our view of US Treasuries amid rising yields but maintain a relative preference for international duration.
• Excess returns for equities appear more attractive than credit, amid strong earnings and tight spreads.