由集中美國走向全球機遇：在波動中持續投資 (只提供英文版)

Overview

In our recent publications, “From US technology leadership to US small caps and emerging markets,” (January 2026) and “Get ready for a broader US market,” (January 2025) we highlighted a setup that is rare but powerful: strong economic growth, broad earnings participation and unusually high market concentration.

Historically, this combination creates fertile ground for market broadening—away from a narrow group of leaders and toward international equities, small-capitalization stocks and less-favored sectors within the United States.

This process was quietly underway through most of 2025 and became more dynamic in recent months. We believe this global rotational bull market can persist over the coming years. However, markets rarely move in straight lines. Even in healthy bull markets, higher volatility and periodic pullbacks are normal—and often create the best opportunities to add risk at more attractive prices.

One framework, two plausible market paths

From a strategic perspective, we view the current environment through the lens of two plausible market paths: Map A and Map B. These are not competing forecasts. They are two components of the same investment framework.

Map A: Broadening within a supportive macro backdrop

Map A reflects the environment markets are currently pricing. It assumes:

• Continued support from monetary and fiscal policy
• Strong productivity gains, including gains from technological adoption
• Resilient gross domestic product (GDP) growth with inflation contained
• High expectations for earnings growth
• Geopolitical risks that are largely priced in, deferred or ignored

Under this scenario, market leadership has continued to broaden, volatility has remained contained, and a constructive macro and liquidity backdrop has supported risk assets. This framework helps explain why markets have remained resilient despite recurring policy uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical risks. Notably, several major US indexes have reached new all-time highs this year, with the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index and value stocks leading the advance.

Map B: A volatility regime shift triggered by surprise

Map B reflects a different—but historically common—path. It assumes that an unexpected shock could force markets to reassess one or more assumptions embedded in Map A.

Such shocks can include:

• A policy mistake
• A geopolitical escalation
• A sharper-than-expected earnings or margin reset

When these events occur, volatility typically rises abruptly, not gradually. Correlations increase, diversification becomes less effective in the short term, and markets reprice risk faster than fundamentals alone would justify.

Episodes such as the December 2018 Federal Reserve interest-rate tightening scare, the COVID-19 pandemic shock and sharp, event-driven selloffs in recent years illustrate this dynamic, which is characterized by sudden drawdowns driven by uncertainty rather than economic collapse. Then, recoveries followed once stability returned.

The key challenge for investors is rarely predicting the shock itself. It is being positioned to withstand the initial repricing without events forcing the need to act at precisely the wrong time.

Bottom line

We remain constructive on US and global equities over the long term. We believe the global rotational bull market remains intact, supported by solid fundamentals and broadening participation.

At the same time, elevated valuations, crowded sentiment and midterm cycle dynamics point to a higher likelihood of volatility. Rather than undermining the investment case, this environment reinforces the importance of preparation and disciplined portfolio management.

The objective is not to forecast the timing of the next drawdown, but to ensure portfolios retain the flexibility to respond constructively—by rebalancing, selectively adding exposure and improving long-term outcomes when market conditions become less favorable.