環球股票趨勢：銀行業重拾投資吸引力 (只提供英文版)

After a few difficult years, the outlook for global banks is starting to improve. Higher interest rates, strong balance sheets and steady customer deposits have helped many banks stay healthy. Even though loan growth has slowed, most banks still appear to be in a strong position. At the same time, many investors remain cautious about the sector, which has kept bank stock prices relatively low compared to their earnings.

Several long-term trends could help banks recover.

Higher interest rates help profits. Interest rates are much higher than they were for most of the decade after the 2008 global financial crisis. In Europe, the European Central Bank's deposit rate was -0.50% in 2019 but rose to 4.00% in 2023, while the Bank of England's policy rate increased from 0.50% in 2009 to 5.25% in 2023.¹ Even if rates come down somewhat, we believe they are likely to stay above the very low levels of the past. This is generally good for banks because they can often earn more money on loans than they pay out to depositors. That can increase profits, especially for banks that focus on lending to consumers and businesses. For example, one of our US holdings generated roughly US$47.7 billion in net interest income in 2024, illustrating how important lending spreads remain to bank earnings.²

More stable regulations. Banks operate under many rules designed to keep the financial system safe. While regulators have increased oversight in some areas, the overall rulebook is well understood. When banks know what rules to expect, they can spend less time and money adjusting to changes and more time focused on serving customers, growing their business and investing in new technology. The banking system remains healthy under the current framework; more than 99% of US banks were considered well-capitalized in 2025.³ In Europe, the aggregate Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio for euro-area banks was 15.8% in 2024, well above regulatory requirements.⁴

Strong dividends and share buybacks. Many banks earn more capital than they need to run their businesses. As a result, they can return money to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. Dividends provide investors with regular income, while buybacks reduce the number of shares outstanding, which can increase the value of the remaining shares. Industry estimates suggest European banks distributed more than €123 billion through dividends and share buybacks in 2025, supported by strong profitability, healthy capital ratios and excess capital generation.⁵ 

Bank stocks look inexpensive. Compared with many other parts of the stock market, bank stocks trade at lower valuations. In Europe, many banks traded at less than their book value in recent years. This contrasts with growth-oriented sectors, which often trade at several times book value. The valuation discount has narrowed recently, but European banking shares were still widely viewed as attractively valued.⁶ Investors still worry about things like slower economic growth and potential loan losses. However, many of these concerns may already be reflected in stock prices.

Technology is improving efficiency. Banks are increasingly using artificial intelligence (AI) and automation to handle routine tasks, improve customer service and detect fraud more quickly. These tools can help banks lower costs and operate more efficiently. The scale of investment is significant. Digital transformation spending continues to accelerate globally, particularly outside the United States. In Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), digital transformation spending is projected to exceed US$1.2 trillion by 2028 (see chart), growing at an annual rate of 15.8%. The financial services sector is forecast to be the largest investor in AI, accounting for more than 20% of total AI spending, with banking leading adoption.⁷