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CONTRIBUTORS

James Cross, CFA

Co-Head of Private Investing

Ryan Biggs, CFA

Co-Head, Private Investing

Richard Herbert, CFA

Head of Investor Relations

Robert Stevenson, CFA

Co-Head of Private Investing

Dylan Serrentino-Mullins

Research Associate

Executive summary

  • SpaceX is not the culmination of the space opportunity—it is the infrastructure unlock. Reusable launch transformed access to orbit from a scarce, bespoke event into recurring infrastructure, creating the conditions for a broader commercial space economy.
  • Government procurement reform helped create the SpaceX success story, and the model is spreading. Early support from DARPA, the Air Force and NASA, combined with commercial-first contracting approaches, enabled SpaceX to develop technologies with both government and commercial applications. Today, agencies such as NASA and Space Force are increasingly institutionalizing that same approach, reinforcing the conditions that helped create the modern space economy.
  • The modern space economy possesses several distinctive structural growth characteristics. Space is one of the few sectors where dual use is operationally real, benefits from a modernization-focused buyer in Space Force, is seeing commercial-first acquisition models spread, offers earlier international market access and provides multiple paths to scale and liquidity.
  • Together, these characteristics support a compelling venture investment opportunity. A growing commercial market, expanding government demand, increasing public-market receptivity and durable bipartisan support have created a foundation that may support the next generation of venture-backed space companies.

The global space economy has compounded through every market cycle: independent estimates average roughly $570 billion for 2025—up from about $400 billion in 2020 and roughly $267 billion in 2010—growing at more than twice the pace of global GDP. Independent forecasts converge on a market that crosses the $1 trillion threshold by the early 2030s, with a blended trajectory of roughly $1.35 trillion by 2035.

Investor interest has grown alongside the market itself: venture investment in space companies reached roughly $10 billion in 2025 on a blended average of the major independent trackers—an all-time high on both the Seraphim and BryceTech indices—and the SpaceX IPO gave the sector the most-watched public debut in market history.

Yet focusing solely on SpaceX risks overlooking the broader story. In our view, SpaceX is not the culmination of the space opportunity; rather, it represents the infrastructure unlock that makes the next generation of venture-scale space companies possible.

Evaluating current space investment opportunities requires understanding the recent structural changes and the key characteristics that distinguish space from other areas of defense and emerging technology. We explore these points here and discuss the timely reasons we remain constructive on space as  a venture investment segment.

Conclusion

The modern space economy emerged from a series of structural shifts that transformed access to orbit, changed how governments procure innovation and expanded the role of commercial providers across the sector. Today, space benefits from a combination of characteristics that are uncommon elsewhere in defense technology: authentic dual-use demand, supportive procurement dynamics, a modernization-focused customer base, international market opportunities and multiple pathways to scale and liquidity. We believe these factors create an especially favorable foundation for venture-backed space companies.

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?

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SpaceX was chosen for this case study as it is the largest IPO in market history to-date.

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