Skip to content

CONTRIBUTORS

Christy Tan

Investment Strategist
Franklin Templeton Institute

Preview:

Introduction

The Franklin Templeton Institute’s US Fixed Income Navigator (FIN) model has shown significant improvement in Q1 2024, marking a shift to a brighter bond market environment. The primary driver of this shift in perspective is the attractive level of yields across fixed income sectors, a supportive liquidity landscape and, notably, the decrease in inflation and inflation expectations. This decline in inflation is a key factor that increases the likelihood of interest rate cuts and reinstates diversification benefits from bonds.

Despite these positive developments, it is crucial to remain mindful of looming risks. Elevated volatility persists, and the current aggressive market pricing for rate cuts may add fuel to the fire. Additionally, the heightened supply of coupon bonds resulting from substantial US budget deficits poses a risk that is expected to persist for some time. Let’s dig deeper.
 

Q1 2024 Highlights

  • In Q1 2024, the model-based conviction has improved, bringing us into positive territory, signaling a more optimistic outlook for bonds.
  • Opportunities—Yields in fixed income sectors are in a favorable zone. The increased likelihood of interest rate cuts should support high-quality bond returns, especially if accompanied by a bull-steepening trend. Falling inflation may restore diversification benefits from bonds.
  • Risks—Volatility may arise from aggressive and premature market pricing for rate cuts. Higher supply of coupon bonds is another risk, but this can be mitigated by a tapering and eventual ending of quantitative tightening.

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?

All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal.

Equity securities are subject to price fluctuation and possible loss of principal.

Fixed income securities involve interest rate, credit, inflation and reinvestment risks, and possible loss of principal. As interest rates rise, the value of fixed income securities falls. Low-rated, high-yield bonds are subject to greater price volatility, illiquidity and possibility of default.

 

Copyright ©2025. Franklin Templeton. All rights reserved.

This document is intended to be of general interest only. This document should not be construed as individual investment advice or offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any shares of fund. The information provided for any individual security mentioned is not a sufficient basis upon which to make an investment decision. Investments involves risks. Value of investments may go up as well as down and past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future performance. The investment returns are calculated on NAV to NAV basis, taking into account of reinvestments and capital gain or loss. The investment returns are denominated in stated currency, which may be a foreign currency other than USD and HKD (“other foreign currency”). US/HK dollar-based investors are therefore exposed to fluctuations in the US/HK dollar / other foreign currency exchange rate. Please refer to the offering documents for further details, including the risk factors.

The data, comments, opinions, estimates and other information contained herein may be subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that an investment product will meet its objective and any forecasts expressed will be realized. Performance may also be affected by currency fluctuations. Reduced liquidity may have a negative impact on the price of the assets. Currency fluctuations may affect the value of overseas investments. Where an investment product invests in emerging markets, the risks can be greater than in developed markets. Where an investment product invests in derivative instruments, this entails specific risks that may increase the risk profile of the investment product. Where an investment product invests in a specific sector or geographical area, the returns may be more volatile than a more diversified investment product. Franklin Templeton accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect consequential loss arising from use of this document or any comment, opinion or estimate herein. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published without prior written permission from Franklin Templeton.

Any share class with “(Hedged)” in its name will attempt to hedge the currency risk between the base currency of the Fund and the currency of the share class, although there can be no guarantee that it will be successful in doing so. In some cases, investors may be subject to additional risks.

Please contact your financial advisor if you are in doubt of any information contained herein.

For UCITS funds only: In addition, a summary of investor rights is available from here. The fund(s)/ sub-fund(s) are notified for marketing in various regions under the UCITS Directive. The fund(s)/ sub-fund(s) can terminate such notifications for any share class and/or sub-fund at any time by using the process contained in Article 93a of the UCITS Directive.

For AIFMD funds only: In addition, a summary of investor rights is available from here. The fund(s)/ sub-fund(s) are notified for marketing in various regions under the AIFMD Directive. The fund(s)/ sub-fund(s) can terminate such notifications for any share class and/or sub-fund at any time by using the process contained in Article 32a of the AIFMD Directive.

For the avoidance of doubt, if you make a decision to invest, you will be buying units/shares in the fund(s)/ sub-fund(s) and will not be investing directly in the underlying assets of the fund(s)/ sub-fund(s).

This document is issued by Franklin Templeton Investments (Asia) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

Unless stated otherwise, all information is as of the date stated above. Source: Franklin Templeton.

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.